Could the vaxxed rather than the unvaxxed be driving the evolution of new variants. This possibility is examined by Dr Gerry Quinn in this article: https://www.hartgroup.org/unvaccinated-as-variant-factories/
1. “Given the lack of proper follow-up data of vaccinated individuals, the real life picture of the epidemiology of vaccinated versus unvaccinated is incredibly muddy. This in and of itself is something of a scandal given that the vaccines use an entirely novel technology, the efficacy of which has yet to be determined.”
This is indeed a scandal. It is either grossly incompetent or it is intentional.
2. “The vast majority of the vulnerable population have now been immunised. The proportionate risk to the rest of the UK population has always been significantly lower; in some instances as much as 1000-fold.”
Has the risk to young people really increased? Has it increased by the degree that is often claimed but rarely quantified? Or is it only the focus of those promoting vaccination that has changed?
3.”There is also an underlying assumption in these articles that there is no immunity without vaccines. This is simply not the case … the number of naturally immune individuals will have risen through exposure to the virus over time, even in the absence of symptomatic disease.”
If this is correct then the natural immunity of the unvaxxed will have risen. According to Quinn natural immunity is superior to vaccine induced immunity and will be more effective in coping with variants. I don’t know if vaccine induced immunity interferes with the acquisition of natural immunity but if it does then over time the vaccinated will become more vulnerable than their unvaccinated peers. Could this explain the apparent waning of vaccine efficacy in Israel?
4. “The question as to whether variants emerge more in the vaccinated or unvaccinated have been the subject of many research studies, most connected to the efficiency of the vaccination strategy. In one study in Israel, in April 2021, the Beta (SA) variant was found in eight times as many of the vaccinated as the unvaccinated. However, in a more recent study from Greece, researchers found that there was no significant difference in the number of infections of the Beta (SA) variant between vaccinated and unvaccinated in health care workers.”
Does this mean that new variants are more likely to arise in the vaccinated? Quinn writes:
5. “New variants would still have emerged without the introduction of vaccinations as they did prior to the vaccine rollout. The virus mutation rate is constant and vaccination has not altered this rate. What is less clear is whether vaccination has increased the rate at which certain variants come to predominate.”
I’m not going to comment on this or the rest of the article but what I’ve read suggests to me that,
a) there is no reason to believe that the unvaccinated drive the emergence of new variants,
b) that a growing probability of superior natural immunity, plus the already thousand-fold smaller risk of young people being seriously harmed by covid, plus whatever risk there is of adverse vaccine reactions, are all arguments against young people being vaccinated.
These arguments may need to be weighed against arguments for having being vaccinated – and the weight will be different for different health profiles and age groups. But at present there is no justification for a gung-ho recommendation that everyone takes the vaccine and certainly no justification for measures that coerce everyone into being vaccinated.